Pakistani Elections 2018: Who Will Get What!

Pakistani Elections 2018: Who Will Get What!

The Election year is here again. Pakistani general elections are going to be held on July 15, 2018. There are 342 seats in National Assembly of Pakistan and 172 seats will be needed for gaining a complete majority.

Before talking about the very next elections, let’s take a short recap of previous one. Three political parties have emerged as major ones in the elections of 2013; PMLN, PPP, and PTI. PMLN has won 166 seats while PPP and PTI have won 42 and 35 seats respectively. It’s crystal clear from the facts that PMLN was the most popular party at that time.

However, PMLN has lost its popularity after the elections of May 2013 due to various reasons like corruption allegations in the election, disqualification of Nawaz Sharif and many others scandals. While PTI has gained acclaims nationwide. PPP has also recovered somehow from their collapse in elections 2013.

Gallup Pakistan, SDPI, and Pulse consultant have conducted few surveys for National voting intention (NVI) from 2013 to 2017. According to the results, PMLN has 32.8% population in its favour which was dropped 27% until the end of the year 2015. It has risen again till 2017 >30%.  NVI for PTI and PPP were 16.9% and 15.2% respectively. NVI for PTI has risen considerably to around 27%. NVI for PPP is still roaming around 15% to 16%.

As per surveys, Provincial voting intention (PVI) for PMLN in Punjab has started from 40.8% in 2013 and has risen up to 50% till 2017. The drastic change has been observed in PVI for PTI in Punjab i.e. from 17.8% (2013) to 31% (2017). PVI for PPP has fallen from 8.8% (2013) to 5% (2017).  The PVI in Sindh has remained same as per previous elections. According to the survey, PPP will be the ruler party of Sindh in the next election too.

The good news is for PTI in KP, where PVI has elevated from 1.3% (2013) to 47% (2017). But the ANP will also regain its power as per results. PVI in Baluchistan shows that the situation will be more or less similar as of elections 2013.

Let’s take a view of predictions by some famous astrologers. Talking to a program in 92HD News,  Samiah Khan has predicted that the three main contestants in the elections 2018 will be Shahbaz Sharif, Imran Khan, and Bilawal Bhutto.  There will be no space for Hamza Shahbaz, Maryam Nawaz, and ex-prime minister Nawaz Sharif. IK will emerge as a strong Leader. But there is no chance of him becoming PM. He can be a kingmaker. But he will not be a king.

Aliya, another astrologer, has given her views on the same program that there will be a tough competition between IK and Bilawal.

Yaseen Wattoo, a palmist, gave his opinion to Tribune that there is no possibility of IK to become a PM in next elections. However, Astrologer Sadia Arshad said, “a contest between Imran Khan and Shahbaz Sharif would be a close one”. “However”, she added, “even if Imran did not become the prime minister, he would remain popular among the masses”.

These estimations ruled out the chance of any party to gain a complete majority. The situation clearly depicts that the government would be made by the coalition of two or more parties.

One more thing to be kept in mind is that all of these are predictions and rough calculations. The real picture of Pakistani politics will be revealed in July 2018. Only then we will get to know that who will be the Next Prime Minister of Pakistan. That will decide the fate of our country for upcoming years.

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