World Health Organization WHO has declared through a series of global variation in the spreading patterns of corona virus that this virus is behaving in quite a different way as observed in case of influenza virus. The wide range of possibilities are to be taken into account if we need to fully understand the nature of this virus. Moreover, the mass public is attempting to return to their normal lives despite the diminishing yet persistent viral atmosphere. It is not overly surprising that we are experiencing another gradual rise in the covid peak all around. Examples can currently be observed in Russia, Mexico, Romania and many other European and Asian countries. Many factors are involved in this process, some important factors are as follows:

CORONAVIRUS COVID-19 WHAT TO EXPECT IN THE COMING DAYS
Bilal Tariq
Bilal Tariq

Coronavirus Covid-19 Pandemic What To Expect In The Coming Days

Keywords: Coronavirus, Covid-19, Cure of Coronavirus, Rise of Coronavirus, Coronavirus in Pakistan, Decline of Coronavirus, Social Distancing, World Health Organization, Precautions to Avoid Coronavirus, Influenza Virus

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Nowadays we are experiencing a sharp decline in the corona spread across the globe. There is a rapid increase of patient recovery as well as positive value for death to recovery ratio among the total affected patients. People are easing their way towards normal lives. At this time when the situation seems to be getting better, we are reminded of the Spanish influenza pandemic when the initial lag phase proved to be a false alarm and the virus returned in a mutated and deadlier form than the first time. So, a question rises in the minds of the public… are we seeing the last of corona virus? There are many possibilities which can be the probable answer to this question.

World Health Organization WHO has declared through a series of global variation in the spreading patterns of corona virus that this virus is behaving in quite a different way as observed in case of influenza virus. The wide range of possibilities are to be taken into account if we need to fully understand the nature of this virus. Moreover, the mass public is attempting to return to their normal lives despite the diminishing yet persistent viral atmosphere. It is not overly surprising that we are experiencing another gradual rise in the covid peak all around. Examples can currently be observed in Russia, Mexico, Romania and many other European and Asian countries. Many factors are involved in this process, some important factors are as follows:

Nowadays we are experiencing a sharp decline in the corona spread across the globe. There is a rapid increase of patient recovery as well as positive value for death to recovery ratio among the total affected patients. People are easing their way towards normal lives. At this time when the situation seems to be getting better, we are reminded of the Spanish influenza pandemic when the initial lag phase proved to be a false alarm and the virus returned in a mutated and deadlier form than the first time. So, a question rises in the minds of the public... are we seeing the last of corona virus? There are many possibilities which can be the probable answer to this question.

Telegraph analysis proposed that those countries which eased their lockdown conditions faced immediate consequences. We can easily take the example of Pakistan, as witnessed during Eid-ul-fitr. Analyzing the facts and figures, we observe that before 23rd May, the total number of positive patients was 52,437. Within the next month, i.e. 23 June, the total number of patients reached a mighty number of 185,034. However, this was the first observed peak in Pakistan which resulted because of ease of lockdown conditions.

Statistics have shown that there is a long delay between the policy change of a community and its effects on the Coronavirus Covid-19

There are two different prospects of spread patterns observed anywhere in the world. The cluster-based spread and the community-based spread. Cluster based spread was observed in Asian countries such as India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Arab countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iran etc. this type is controllable as the most viable step taken is to seal the areas most affected. This way we can stop the cluster spread of the virus. On the other hand. In European countries such as Italy, Spain, France, UK and in USA, a community spread was observed when lockdown restrictions were eased. Community phase has been prioritized over cluster spread as there are no loose ends to start the recovery process. Moreover, community phase has more tendency to follow a second spike.

Statistics have shown that there is a long delay between the policy change of a community and its effects on the covid data of that community, owing to a rather long incubation period of the virus. As a lockdown protocol will be dissolved in an area, initially it may not seem to affect the viral activity rate. However, within a span of 2 to 3 weeks, as evident from data, the rise in the number of patients will occur.

Moreover, scientists are also worried that if the virus somehow survives in however meagre amount

With all the considerations taken into account, scientists are still worried that there might be a second surge of the pandemic. Generally speaking, this outbreak will be mostly caused due to human behavior. Recent studies have confirmed the increased frustration in the public by as much as 47%. There seems to be a reduced tendency to follow social distancing. It takes a relatively long time to observe the impact of behavioral changes on the spread pattern, so we can say that given the current persistence of corona virus, easing our way out of the lockdown now will have its impact presumably in the next month. Moreover, scientists are also worried that if the virus somehow survives in however meagre amount, the coming fall season with its seasonal flu will aggravate the situation and be the onset of a much larger peak than witnessed before.

Analyzing the facts and figures
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